In 2023, we observed an average month-to-month increase in CVEs of approximately 1.64%, with this rate accelerating as the year progressed. At the same time, several trends emerged that are associated with this increase. These include a heightened focus on supply chain security by governments and commercial entities, intensified regulatory discussions around how to roll out concepts of software liability, and the expanded application of machine learning technologies in software security analysis.

Despite the broad use of open source, the large majority of software is still delivered and consumed in binary form. There are a few reasons for this, but the most obvious is that the sheer size and complication of code bases combined with the limited availability of expertise and time within consuming organizations makes the use of the source to manage risk impractical.

At the same time, it’s clear this issue is not new, for example in 1984, Ken Thompson, in his Turing Award Lecture, mentioned, “No amount of source-level verification or scrutiny will protect you from untrusted code”. This statement has been partially vindicated recently, as intelligent code analysis agents, although faster ways to produce code, have been found to exert downward pressure on code quality while also reducing the developer’s understanding of the code they produce — a bad combination.

To the extent these problems are resolved we can expect the attackers to be using the same tools to more rapidly identify new and more complex attack chains. In essence, it has become an arms race to build and apply these technologies to both offensive and defensive use cases.

It is this reality that has led to DARPA’s creation of the DARPA’s Artificial Intelligence Cyber Challenge and its various projects on using AI to both identify and fix security defects at scale.

The saying “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity” aptly describes the current situation, where numerous security focused startups claim to offer solutions to our problems. However, the truth is often quite different.

Some of those racing to take advantage of this opportunity are focusing on software supply chain security, particularly with a focus on software composition analysis. This is largely driven by regulatory pressures to adopt the Software Bill of Materials concept. Yet, most tools that generate these documents only examine interpreted code and declared dependencies. As previously mentioned, the majority of code is delivered and consumed in compiled form, leaving customers unable to assess its correctness and completeness without enough data to do so. As a result, although these tools may help with compliance, they inadvertently cause harm by giving a false sense of security.

There are other vendors still that are essentially scaling up traditional source code reviews using large language models (LLMs). But as we’ve discussed, these tools are currently showing signs of reducing code quality and developers’ understanding of their own code. At the same time these tools produce such a high volume of false positives given the lack of context this analysis has available to it triaging the outputs can turn into a full-time job. This suggests that negative outcomes could ensue over time if we don’t adjust how we apply this technology or see significant improvements in the underlying technology itself.

These efforts are all concentrated on the software creators but if we expand the problem domain to include the consumers of software we see that outside of cloud environments, where companies like Wiz and Aqua Security provide vulnerability assessments at scale, there are hardly any resources aiding software consumers in making informed decisions about the risks they face by the software they use. A big part of this is the sheer amount of noise even these products produce, combined with the lack of actionability in such data for the consumer of the software. With that said these are tractable problems if we just choose to invest in new solutions rather than apply the same old approaches we have in the past.

As we look toward the next decade, it is clear that software security is at a pivotal point, and navigating it goes beyond just technology; it requires a change in mindset towards more holistic security strategies that consider both technical and human factors. The next few years will be critical as we see whether the industry can adapt to these challenges.